|| ZAHOOR GULZAR
After grandstanding for nearly three months and setting conditions for government formation, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) President Mehbooba Mufti finally gave in and decided to follow the path shown by her late father Mufti Mohammad Sayeed as she joined hands with the BJP again. Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigned intensively in Jammu and Kashmir during the 2014 Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir on the plank of ousting the “Baap- Beta”(referring to Farooq-Omar Abdullah duo of National Conference) and “Baap-Beti”(referring to Mufti Sayeed-Mehbooba duo of PDP) from the power.
While the BJP had plenty of justifcation for joining hands with Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, given the stature the late leader had in the national politics and the fractured mandate, it was hard to believe that the Saffron party will be the one harking for power and show eagerness to throw its weight behind the 56-year-old daughter of the country’s only Muslim Home Minister so far. What was moresurprising that Mehbooba, often labelled as the softseparatist mascot of the PDP, would be playing the hard ball while renegotiating analliance with the BJP. The 77-day stalemate played out with many crests and troughs as the BJP leaders made statement after statement that they were willing to accept Mehbooba as the next Chief Minister of the troubled state. With five other states in India going to elections in the next during the year, logic — which rarely works in the subcontinent politics and Kashmir included, would say that BJP should have escaped at first opportunity from the alliance with the PDP which saw the two coalition partners pitted against each other during the 10-month tenure of Mufti Mohammad Sayeed.
The BJP by supporting Mehbooba Mufti has only strengthened the ‘dynastic’ system of succession in Jammu and Kashmir which was prevalent during the pre-Independence times when Kings and Maharajas were the sole rulers. Not that BJP will be able to change much in terms of dynastic politics and system of succession in the state in general, and Kashmir in particular, breaking away from the PDP — which might become a liability for the right-wing party in the longer run. For Mehbooba, forming government with the BJP is a make-or-break gamble — more likely a losing punt than winning. If Mehbooba is able to deliver even on half the promises made by her PDP and BJP to each other in the Agenda of Alliance (they are not responsible to people for the promises made in this document as they contested elections separately), she would have earned herself a place in the history books as one of the strongest leaders to have been born in Kashmir.
What made Mehbooba change her mind? In the first place, there was not much clarity about why she is delaying government formation after her father’s death and then there was absolutely no explanation for the sudden change in heart that led to her meeting the Prime Minister and saying the much awaited YES to the Government formation. Was there a rebellion within her party? Was she concerned over the falling stock of her party’s political fortune which she wanted to somehow salvage by doing some good on development front? Or was it a rift within the family as to who should be heir to late Mufti Mohammad Sayeed? Only Mehbooba can answer these questions, if she ever chooses to do so!However, it is unlikely that Mehbooba will now be able to achieve much in terms of political process which her father and the PDP were keenly advocating before coming to power.
The public rebuff from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Mufti Sayeed on November 7 last year about “no need for advice” on how to handle Kashmir should have been an indication for Mehbooba that the BJP strongman – who enjoys a brute majority in the Lok Sabha – will be willing to even consider any of the major issues which form the core of the PDP issues. The demand for revocation of Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) from Jammu and Kashmir was a demand raised by the PDP towards the end of its coalition government with the Congress but Omar Abdullah, who became the youngest chief minister of the state in 2009, appropriated the demand and pursued it vigorously with the Centre at least by making public statements about it. Omar was so confident based on assurances that were handed out to him by some senior ministers in the then UPA government at the Centre that he said the partial revocation of the law would begin not within months and weeks but in a few days time. Several years down the line, the demand for revocation of AFSPA remains as alive as it was when PDP fi rst r aised it a decade ago.
After the failed round table initiative by then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Congress, as the leader of the UPA, was as serious about dialogue as BJP-led NDA is today. Post-2005, Congress leaders always maintained that the Centre was ready for a dialogue with anyone in Jammu and Kashmir provided they were looking for a solution within the framework of the Indian Constitution. The preposition was a non-starter and hence no further talks ever took place between the Kashmiri separatists and the Centre. No one is ignorant of the fate meted out in the public perception of those who believed in Indian Constitution – from towering Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah to the wily old Mufti Mohammad Sayeed. Coming to the present day government ruling the country, not a single word about resolving the Kashmir issue has e ven b een w hispered.
The Prime Minister, the Home Minister and several other union ministers have been visiting the state on a regular basis for the past two years and they talked like parrots — Sab Ka Saath, Sab Ka Vikas. The late Mufti in the last decade-and-half of his political career often said –Bandook Say Na Goli Say, Baat Banegi Boli Say. We are yet to hear this from anyone who is worth anything in the Centre – or for that matter even in the BJP. Agenda of Alliance, whoever drafted it, has used such jugglery of words that a dialogue with separatists in Kashmir is as much part of it as much it is not. In the given scenario, Mehbooba – however-well she may play her cards in coming days, weeks, months and years – can kiss her party’s political agenda a good bye. Development is the other major area where Mehbooba, the Chief Minister, can focus her attention on.
However, here also she has a tricky situation to face. For the rehabilitation of flood victims, the Centre provided funds but too late in the day for Mufti Mohammad Sayeed. He was not seemingly treated well by the dispensation at the Centre in terms of funds for rehabilitation of flood victims and other development issues. The money Centre gave for flood affected people could have been given to the victims while Mufti was still alive. Mehbooba will also have to shoulder a huge burden of explaining in coming years as to what part of the Rs 80,000 crore package announced by the Prime Minister on November 7, 2015 would actually be spent by the state government. Bulk of the funds, as we understand as of now, are meant for defence projects with little relevance to the civilian population of the state.
The people of Jammu and Kashmir have been dubbed as parasites on Indian economy for seeking doles all the time. The Rs 33,000 crore package announced by the Manmohan Singh Government for Jammu and Kashmir is often cited as evidence to substantiate this charge. Little do people know that Jammu and Kashmir received less than Rs 10,000 crore under that package in the decade from 2005 to 2014. The 80,000 crore package will be bigger blot for the state to deal with in coming years. Whatever happens on governance front in the coming years, Mehbooba Mufti and her government (whenever it takes shape) will surely have to deal with a lot of controversial issues. Beef ban, p ersecution of K ashmiri Muslims across India and now within the state as well, the flag issue, etc will surely come up again.
There is a lot of kite flying happening about the delay in Government formation including B JP p ushing f or a h arder b argain in terms of portfolio distribution.There are also demands from some right wing outfits that Mehbooba chant Bharat Mata Ki Jai before being sworn in as the Chief Minister. Mehbooba after meeting the Prime Minister said she was“satisfied”. She may have become a Reluctant Queen but Queen she is now for five years or till the time BJP wants her to be….. EOM
PROFILE
Mehbooba Mufti, will not only be the first woman Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir but also the first woman Muslim chief minister in India, if and when she takes oath of office. She has emerged from the shadows of her illustrious father Mufti Mohammad Sayeed to turn her Peoples Democratic Party as a regional force to reckon with. From a Law graduate to a housewife, Mehbooba, took a plunge into the mainstream politics of the state in 1996 by joining Congress, along with her father, at a time when militancy was at its peak.
She is credited with the grassroots-level popularity and growth of the PDP with some observers feeling that she outshone her father in connecting to the grassroots. What set Mehbooba apart from politicians of her time, and even her father, was her talent of ground-level political ma n a gemen t .T he 56 – y e a r – o l d , mother of two daughters, assumed an image of a fiery leader and won her first Assembly election as a Congress candidate from her home segment of Bijbehara.She then played a key role in her father’s victory as Congress candidate in Lok Sabha elections of 1998 when Sayeed defeated National Conference’s Mohammad Yousuf Taing from south Kashmir.
Mehbooba’s party emerged as the single largest party in the assembly elections bagging 28 seats, paving way for her father to become Chief Minister for the second time.
As Sayeed felt an urge to do something for return ofpeace to Kashmir,Mehbooba was by his side as the father-daughter duo decided to float their regional party – the PDP – in 1999. They took along some leaders disgruntled with National Conference and many from the Congress, a party where Sayeed spent most of his sixdecade political career. F rom there, Mehbooba took on the responsibility of building the new party from the start. She was accused of playing the soft-separatist card — PDP chose the green colour for the party flag and adopted Pen-Inkpot election symbol of the Muslim United Front (MUF) of 1987 — but these moves found some resonances on the ground among the Kashmir residents. Mehbooba used to visit the homes of those killed in militancy-related violence and immediately struck a cord with the people, especially women, often lending them a shoulder to cry on.
In 2002 Assembly polls – termed the watershed elections in the state, PDP bagged 16 seats – most of them from south where Mehbooba had extensively campaigned and consolidated the support for her party and her father was sworn-in as the chief minister of the state with the support of his former party – Congress. wTo years after the elections, Mehbooba contested Parliamentary polls from south Kashmir and won – her first Lok Sabha election win. She had c ontested L ok S abha e lections from Srinagar in 1999 but was defeated by her bête-noire Omar Abdullah. When Amarnath land row engulfed the state, Mehbooba played an important role in persuading her father to pull out from the coalition government with Congress headed by Ghulam Nabi Azad. In 2008 assembly elections, she contested and won from Wachi segment of Shopian district of south Kashmir. Her party increased the tally to 21 seats but preferred to stay in the opposition.
It was the National Conference which formed a coalition government with Congress, which was still smarting from the PDP ‘betrayal’ following the Amarnath Land row. Mehbooba consolidated her party’s support base in the years spent as opposition p art, highlighting t he alleged failures of the NC-led coalition government. She was a very active opposition leader and the result of which was seen in 2014 Lok Sabha elections as the party won all the three seats in the Valley. Months later, Mehbooba’s party emerged as the single largest party in the assembly elections bagging 28 seats, paving way for her father to become Chief Minister for the second time. n MI arch 2015, after months of hectic negotiations, the party formed government in Jammu and Kashmir in an alliance with BJP.
Although Mehbooba kept a low profile post government formation, she assumed a more central role after reports of Sayeed’s ill health surfaced. She was seen by her father’s side at most public functions while taking more interest in the affairs of the state. As the chief minister’s health deteriorated, speculation about a change of guard rose in the party and credence to those speculations was given by Sayeed himself when he hinted that his daughter could take over the reins — not by virtue of being his daughter but in view of the hard work she had put in.
